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Pack back vs what actually came out
Every digital pack that gets ripped mints exactly 10 cards, and each card's on-chain name says which pack it came from, so we can rebuild every digital rip and check it against the odds printed on the pack back. Physical packs opened outside the digital system are not included.
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| Tier | Pack back says | Observed | 95% interval | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Common Base | 5 per pack | 4.99 | 4.99 to 5.00 | Below claim |
| Common Foil | 54% of packs | 54.8% | 53.4% to 56.2% | Matches |
| Uncommon Base | 3 per pack | 3.01 | 3.00 to 3.01 | Above claim |
| Uncommon Foil | 32% of packs | 33.8% | 32.5% to 35.1% | Above claim |
| Rare Base | 0.75 per pack | 0.751 | 0.739 to 0.763 | Matches |
| Rare Foil | 8% of packs | 8.4% | 7.6% to 9.2% | Matches |
| Prestige Base | 0.21 per pack | 0.207 | 0.196 to 0.218 | Matches |
| Prestige Foil | 2% of packs | 2.4% | 2.0% to 2.8% | Above claim |
| Legendary Base | 0.04 per pack | 0.0416 | 0.0364 to 0.0475 | Matches |
| Legendary Foil | 0.5% of packs | 0.42% | 0.3% to 0.6% | Matches |
The pack back states two different things, and we check each one the way it is written.
Pack back source: Photo of the physical pack back (Rarity Economics, per card pack), shared by the community. The pack back also prints serialized odds. Yuga Labs says there are 8 serialized 1/1s in the whole set, and none has been minted on chain yet, so they are not checked here. Every opened pack had exactly 10 cards.
19,634 digital packs issued so far. The official print run is 240,000 packs (2,400,000 cards), and every digital pack is backed by a sealed physical pack in a vault. Ripping a digital pack burns it and mints 10 cards in the same transaction. Counts read straight from the collection accounts on Solana at .
Hourly series from marketplace mint records, starting .
On chain, packs are named Mudwater Pack 0 to 9. Opened share by type, from the saved snapshot:
| Pack | Sealed | Opened | Opened % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mudwater Pack 0 | 2,938 | 1,165 | 28.4% |
| Mudwater Pack 1 | 2,996 | 1,107 | 27.0% |
| Mudwater Pack 2 | 979 | 286 | 22.6% |
| Mudwater Pack 3 | 1,001 | 264 | 20.9% |
| Mudwater Pack 4 | 977 | 288 | 22.8% |
| Mudwater Pack 5 | 976 | 289 | 22.8% |
| Mudwater Pack 6 | 975 | 290 | 22.9% |
| Mudwater Pack 7 | 985 | 280 | 22.1% |
| Mudwater Pack 8 | 974 | 291 | 23.0% |
| Mudwater Pack 9 | 983 | 282 | 22.3% |